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In the wake of Charlie Kirk’s assassination and a string of politically motivated attacks across the United States, the question of political violence has moved from academic circles into the national spotlight. Political Violence. Once considered fringe or isolated, violent extremism now appears to be a recurring feature of American political life. But what’s driving this surge—and can it be predicted?
By [Bob Cutler]
A Nation in Turmoil
On September 10, 2025, conservative activist Charlie Kirk was fatally shot while speaking at Utah Valley University. His death followed a series of violent incidents: the assassination of Minnesota Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, an arson attack on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s residence, and shootings targeting federal facilities. These events have shaken public confidence and prompted urgent calls for action.
According to the Bridging Divides Initiative at Princeton University, political violence is not only increasing in frequency but also evolving in form. Their 2024 report identified five key trends: rising vigilante activity, resurgence of organized violent groups, declining trust in law enforcement, increased threats against local officials, and amplification of conflict through national narratives (https://bridgingdivides.princeton.edu/key-political-violence-and-resilience-trends-2024).
Historical Parallels and Modern Amplifiers
Political violence is not new to the United States. The 1960s and 1970s saw the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr., and Robert F. Kennedy. But today’s violence is amplified by technology. Social media platforms allow radical ideologies to spread rapidly, often without context or accountability.
Michael Jensen, a researcher at the University of Maryland, notes that “hyperpartisanship” and misinformation have created an environment “potentially prime for violence.” He emphasizes that the loudest and most vitriolic voices now garner the largest audiences, further polarizing the public (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/charlie-kirks-assassination-highlights-history-political-violence-us-rcna230586).
The Data Behind the Danger
Alex Nowrasteh of the Cato Institute has compiled one of the most comprehensive datasets on political violence in the U.S. since 1975. His findings are sobering: 3,599 people have been murdered in politically motivated terrorist attacks, with right-wing violence accounting for 11% of those deaths—second only to Islamist-inspired attacks. Left-wing violence, by contrast, accounts for just 2%. Right-wing extremists are responsible for 63% of politically motivated deaths. Left-wing extremists account for 10%. Islamist extremists make up 21%.(https://reason.com/volokh/2025/09/11/assessing-the-extent-of-political-violence-in-america/).
While the 9/11 attacks dominate the statistics, recent years have seen a troubling uptick in domestic incidents. Since 2020, 81 politically motivated murders have occurred, representing 0.07% of all murders in that period. Though numerically small, the symbolic impact is enormous.
Misogyny: The Overlooked Predictor
One of the most underappreciated predictors of political violence is hostile sexism. Cynthia Miller-Idriss, director of the Polarization and Extremism Research & Innovation Lab (PERIL) at American University, argues that gender-based bigotry is often a gateway to violent extremism. Yet, it’s routinely ignored in threat models.
“The link is ignored, over and over,” Miller-Idriss said. “Violence that is rooted in gendered issues is a huge predictor of—and possibly the biggest predictor—of trajectories that lead to mass violence” (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/want-to-stop-political-violence-start-by-addressing-hostile-sexism/ar-AA1ML8Hw).
Her research shows that intimate partner violence, antifeminist rhetoric, and anti-LGBTQ attitudes often form the foundation for radicalization. These beliefs are not always the primary motivator, but they frequently push individuals down the path toward extremism.
Lone Wolves and Folk Heroes
The decentralization of political violence is another alarming trend. Unlike organized militias or terrorist cells, many recent attackers are lone actors radicalized online. Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University, notes that some perpetrators have even become “folk heroes,” with musicals and media glorifying their actions (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/charlie-kirk-s-assassination-highlights-the-rise-in-us-political-violence/ar-AA1MqM5D).
This cultural shift—where violence is not only tolerated but celebrated—marks a dangerous departure from democratic norms. It also complicates law enforcement efforts, as decentralized threats are harder to detect and prevent.
Predictive Models and Their Limitations
Despite growing awareness, predictive models remain flawed. The FBI’s 2018 report on active shooters listed 22 warning signs—none related to gender. Similarly, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence categorized misogynistic and anti-LGBTQ violence under a vague “other” label, failing to recognize its predictive power.
Miller-Idriss calls for a rethinking of threat assessment frameworks. She advocates for the inclusion of domestic violence, antifeminist rhetoric, and patriarchal enforcement as key indicators. Her new book, Man Up: The New Misogyny and the Rise of Violent Extremism, synthesizes research across disciplines to show how gendered ideologies fuel radicalization (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/want-to-stop-political-violence-start-by-addressing-hostile-sexism/ar-AA1ML8Hw).
What Can Be Done?
The Bridging Divides Initiative offers a roadmap for resilience. Their recommendations include:
- Providing safety resources for civic engagement.
- Enhancing monitoring and information-sharing.
- Empowering trusted leaders to communicate about risk.
These strategies aim to counteract the forces driving political violence and rebuild public trust. But implementation requires political will—and a recognition that the threat is real and growing (https://bridgingdivides.princeton.edu/key-political-violence-and-resilience-trends-2024).
Conclusion: A Rough Road Ahead
Political violence in the United States is no longer an anomaly—it’s a recurring feature of a deeply polarized society. While historical parallels offer some insight, today’s challenges are compounded by digital radicalization, cultural shifts, and institutional blind spots.
Experts agree: the road ahead will be rough. But by understanding the predictors—especially those long ignored—we may yet find a path toward peace.
Bibliography: Political Violence in the U.S.
🔍 National and Investigative Coverage
- “How recent political violence in the U.S. fits into ‘a long, dark history’” – MSN Explores historical parallels and recent incidents including Charlie Kirk’s assassination. (www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/charlie-kirk-s-assassination-highlights-the-rise-in-us-political-violence/ar-AA1MqM5D)
- “Trump Called for a Crackdown on the ‘Radical Left.’ But Right-Wing Extremists Are Responsible for More Political Violence” – MSN Analyzes data on political violence and partisan narratives. (www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-blames-the-left-for-violence-more-comes-from-right/ar-AA1MF0ov)
- “US rocked by political violence as murders and plots grip the nation” – MSN Details multiple cases including Charlie Kirk, Brian Thompson, and Melissa Hortman. (www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/from-utah-to-new-york-key-developments-in-cases-of-us-political-violence/ar-AA1MGedG)
- “Why America Can’t Escape Its Long Legacy of Political Violence” – MSN Discusses systemic roots and historical continuity of political violence. (www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-america-cant-escape-its-long-legacy-of-political-violence/ar-AA1MLHgI)
- “Trump’s Terrifying, Self-Serving Rebrand of Political Violence” – MSN Investigates political rhetoric and its alignment with extremist narratives. (www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-s-terrifying-self-serving-rebrand-of-political-violence/ar-AA1MTcMk)
- “How recent political violence in the U.S. fits into ‘a long, dark history’” – PBS NewsHour Offers historical context and expert commentary on recent events. (www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-recent-political-violence-in-the-u-s-fits-into-a-long-dark-history)
- “Is Political Violence Rising in America?” – GovFacts Defines political violence and analyzes trends and actors. (www.govfacts.org/analysis/is-political-violence-rising-in-america)
- “Political violence in America: Why it’s on the rise” – UCLA Newsroom Interview with law professor Jon Michaels on causes and consequences. (www.newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/political-violence-in-america-why-its-on-the-rise)
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